Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - April 2024

The April DMP survey was conducted between 5 and 19 April and received 2,379 responses.

Firms reported that their output prices rose by an average annual rate of 5.2% in the three months to April, down from 5.4% in the three months to March. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Businesses expect their output price inflation to decline over the next year. Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 4.0% in the three months to April, down from 4.1% in the three months to March. Output price inflation is, therefore, expected to decline by 1.2 percentage points over the next 12 months based on three-month averages.

One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations declined further to 2.9% in April, down from 3.2% in March. The three-month average fell by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% in April. Three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.7% in the three months to April, meanwhile the monthly data declined by 0.1 percentage points to 2.6%.

Firms reported annual employment growth of 1.7% in the three months to April, lower than the 2.0% reported in the three months to March. Expected year-ahead employment growth was 1.3% in the three months to April, down 0.1 percentage points from the three months to March.

Expected year-ahead wage growth declined slightly to 4.8% on a three-month moving-average basis. Annual wage growth was 6.2% in the three months to April, down 0.2 percentage points from the three months to March. Firms therefore expect their wage growth to decline by 1.4 percentage points over the next 12 months based on three-month averages.

Firms reported that the average interest rate that they were paying on their borrowing (both bank and market based) was 7.0% in April, 0.1 percentage points lower than reported in March. Over the next year, firms expect the average interest rate on their borrowing to decline to 6.0%, but this remains significantly higher than the interest rate of 3.6% that firms had previously reported paying at the end of 2021.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bloom et al (2017) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.