Systemic Risk Survey Results - 2025 H1

The Systemic Risk Survey is conducted on a biannual basis, to quantify and track market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.
Published on 09 April 2025

Overview

The Bank of England’s financial stability objective is to protect and enhance the stability of the financial system of the United Kingdom. The Systemic Risk Survey contributes to this objective by quantifying and tracking, on a biannual basis, market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.footnote [1]

The survey is generally completed by executives responsible for firms’ risk management or treasury functions. The results presented are based on responses to the survey and do not necessarily reflect the Bank of England’s views on risks to the UK financial system. Participants include UK banks and building societies, large foreign banks, asset managers, hedge funds, insurers, pension funds, large non-financial companies and central counterparties. Summary statistics are calculated by giving equal weight to each survey response.

Additional background information on the survey is available in the 2009 Q3 Quarterly Bulletin article Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey.

This report presents the results of the 2025 H1 survey, which was conducted between 27 January and 24 February 2025.

55 firms participated in the 2025 H1 survey, representing a 68% response rate.

Key results from 2025 H1 survey

  • Survey respondents on balance remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years, although confidence fell relative to the previous survey, back to its level in 2024 H1.
  • The perceived probability of a high-impact event affecting the UK financial system in both the short and medium term has increased for the first time since 2022 H2.
  • Geopolitical risk and cyberattack remain the most frequently cited risks among participants, and are still considered the most challenging to manage by a significant margin. However, the share of respondents citing cyberattack as their ‘number one’ source of risk has declined.
  • There was an increase in respondents citing risks associated with a UK economic downturn compared with the 2024 H2 survey. A larger share of respondents also cited operational risks and financial market disruption/dislocation.
  • Geopolitical risk continues to be considered by a majority of respondents as the most likely risk to materialise.

Confidence in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked about the level of confidence they have in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years.

Chart 1 represents the results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Survey participants on balance remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, although confidence fell relative to the previous survey, back to its 2024 H1 level.

  • No respondents report being completely confident (-2 percentage points relative to the 2024 H2 survey).
  • 35% of respondents judge themselves as being very confident (-4 percentage points).
  • 53% of respondents judge themselves as being fairly confident (-4 percentage points).
  • 13% of respondents judge themselves not very confident in the stability of the UK financial system (+9 percentage points).

Chart 1: Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (a)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents’ confidence in the stability of the UK’s financial system over the next three years. The series shown is between 2008–25. The stacked columns are overlaid with a line indicating high confidence with a net percentage balance of 10.9%. Series high: 22.4% in 2021 H2. Series low: -9% in 2009 H2.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years. The net percentage balance is calculated by weighting responses as follows: complete confidence (1), very confident (0.5), fairly confident (0), not very confident (-0.5) and no confidence (-1). Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance.

Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked for their view on the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short and medium term.footnote [2]

Charts 2 and 3 represent results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Respondents judge that the likelihood of a high-impact event is a little higher than judged in the previous survey over the short term and medium term.

Over the short term (1–12 months):

  • 24% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high or very high (+7 percentage points).
  • 42% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (-4 percentage points).
  • 31% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be low (-4 percentage points).
  • 4% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very low (+2 percentage points).

Chart 2: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the short term (a) (b)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents’ perceptions of the probability of a high-impact event occurring in 0–12 months. The series shown is between 2008–25. The stacked columns are overlaid with a line, showing a measure of overall perception of the probability of such an event. Respondents feel that the probability of a high-impact event occurring in the short term has increased over the past six months, with a net percentage balance of -6.4% in this survey. Series high: 41.1% in 2019 H2. Series low: -36.1% in 2014 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked what is the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term. And also, how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, short term was defined as 0–12 months.
  • (b) Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance. The net percentage balance in this chart is calculated by weighting responses as follows: very high (1), high (0.5), medium (0), low (-0.5) and very low (-1).

Over the medium term (1–3 years):

  • 5% of respondents judge that the probability of a high-impact event over the medium term is very high (+5 percentage points relative to the 2024 H2 survey).
  • No respondents judge that the probability of a high-impact event over the medium term is very low (-2 percentage points), and 11% judge that it is low (-2 percentage points).
  • 53% of respondents judge that the probability of a high-impact event over the medium term is medium (+10 percentage points).
  • 31% of respondents judge that the probability of a high-impact event over the medium term is high (-12 percentage points).

Chart 3: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the medium term (a) (b)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents’ perceptions of the probability of a high-impact event occurring in 1–3 years. The series shown is between 2008–25. The columns are overlaid with a line, showing a measure of overall perception of the probability of such an event. Respondents feel that the probability of a high-impact event occurring in the medium term has increased over the past six months, with a net percentage balance of 15.5%. Series high: 43.8% in 2022 H2. Series low: -7.6% in 2014 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked what is the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term, and how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, medium term was defined as 1–3 years.
  • (b) See footnote (b) of Chart 2.

Sources of risk to the UK financial system

Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. To give an overview of the results, answers, which were provided in free-text format, have been grouped into the 26 categories shown in Table A2.footnote [3] Below is a list of the risks that were most frequently cited by respondents in the 2025 H1 survey as one of their top five risks (Chart 4):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 87% of respondents, -5 percentage points since the 2024 H2 survey).

2. Cyberattack (73%, -7 percentage points).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (62%, +16 percentage points).

4=. Operational risk (33%, +11 percentage points).

4=. Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation (33%, +11 percentage points).

The risks most commonly cited by market participants as the ‘number one’ source of risk to the UK financial system (Chart 5) were:

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 42% of respondents, equal to the 2024 H2 survey).

2. Cyberattack (18%, -13 percentage points).

3. Operational risk (11%, +5 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (9%, +4 percentage points).

5=. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (4%, -2 percentages points).

5=. Risk of financial market dislocation/disruption (4%, +2 percentage points).

5=. Funding risk (4%, +4 percentage points).

Geopolitical risk and cyberattack remain the most frequently cited risks among participants. However, the share of respondents citing cyberattack as their ‘number one’ source of risk has declined.

There was an increase in respondents citing risks associated with a UK economic downturn compared with the 2024 H2 survey. A larger share of respondents also cited operational risk and financial market disruption/dislocation.

  • The three most frequently cited risks – geopolitical risk, cyberattack, and risks associated with a UK economic downturn – were also those most frequently cited in the previous survey.
  • The number of respondents citing risks associated with a UK economic downturn rose in the latest survey.
  • There were increases in the share of respondents citing operational risks – including IT failure – and also financial market disruption/dislocation, with respondents noting the risk of a reduction in market liquidity.
  • Beyond the top five risks, significant changes include declines in the number of respondents citing risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (to 20%, -13 percentage points since 2024 H2), and climate risk (to 15%, -15 percentage points).

Chart 4: Perceived key sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey that cited each risk between 2008–25. Geopolitical risk was cited by at 87% of respondents in 2025 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five categories; see the data appendix for additional categories.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Chart 5: ‘Number one’ sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey that cited each risk as the most impactful if it were to materialise, between 2008–24. The top two risks considered most impactful in 2025 H1 are geopolitical risk (cited by 42% of respondents) and cyberattack (18%).

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk as their number one key risk, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five ‘number one’ sources of risk that have been cited in the most recent survey; see the data appendix for more detail.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Most challenging risks to manage as a firm

Respondents were asked to rank which of the five risks they identified would be the most challenging to manage, should they materialise.

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 6):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 67% of respondents, -4 percentage points since the 2024 H2 survey).

2. Cyberattack (62%, -9 percentage points).

3. Risk associated with UK economic downturn (35%, +18 percentage points).

4. Operational risk (25%, +9 percentage points).

5. Risks around regulation/taxes (13%, +5 percentage points).

Chart 6: Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents citing each risk as the most challenging to manage for their firms, between 2008–25. Geopolitical risk (mentioned by 67% of respondents) was considered the most challenging to manage, followed closely by cyberattack (62%).

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked which three of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top six categories only; see the data appendix for additional categories.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Geopolitical risk and cyberattack are still considered to be most challenging to manage for a majority of firms.

  • Geopolitical risk and cyberattacks are still considered the most challenging to manage by respondents, although the proportion of respondents citing them fell slightly relative to the previous survey.
  • There has been an increase in the number of respondents citing risks associated with a UK economic downturn since the 2024 H2 survey (to 35%, +18 percentage points).
  • The proportion of participants citing risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn decreased by 11 percentage points since the 2024 H2 survey.
  • The proportion of respondents citing climate risk has continued to decrease (to 5%, -9 percentage points), and is now at its lowest level since 2019 H1.

Key risks most likely to materialise

Respondents were asked to rank which of the five risks they thought would be the most probable to materialise.footnote [4]

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 7):

1. Geopolitical risk (80% of respondents, +5 percentage points since the 2024 H2 survey).

2. Risk associated with UK economic downturn (49%, +20 percentage points).

3. Cyberattack (44%, -16 percentage points).

4. Operational risk (18%, +5 percentage points).

5. Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation (16%, +2 percentage points).

Chart 7: Risks most likely to materialise – as mentioned by respondents (a) (b) (c)

This is a tree map chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey citing each risk as most probable to materialise. Geopolitical risk (cited by 80% of respondents), risks associated with a UK economic downturn (49%) and cyberattack (44%) are considered most likely to occur by respondents in this survey.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked which three of these risks they thought were most likely to materialise. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
  • (c) The risks presented in this chart include only those cited as most likely to materialise by at least 5% of respondents. Please refer to Table A4 in the data appendix for details.
  • Geopolitical risk remains the most likely risk to materialise according to respondents.
  • The share of respondents citing risks associated with a UK economic downturn has increased, by 20 percentage points.
  • There has been a decline in respondents citing cyberattack since the 2024 H2 survey, but it continues to be considered one of the most likely risks to materialise.

Data appendix

  • Aggregate risks to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c)

    2021 H2

    2022 H1

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (d)

    Very high

    3

    1

    14

    6

    2

    0

    0

    2

    High

    19

    30

    48

    46

    36

    24

    17

    22

    Medium

    48

    46

    35

    33

    32

    50

    46

    42

    Low

    24

    21

    3

    14

    27

    23

    35

    31

    Very low

    5

    1

    0

    1

    4

    3

    2

    4

    Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (d)

    Very high

    9

    9

    17

    11

    7

    8

    0

    5

    High

    43

    37

    55

    56

    50

    38

    43

    31

    Medium

    40

    53

    26

    28

    34

    39

    43

    53

    Low

    9

    1

    2

    6

    9

    15

    13

    11

    Very low

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (e)

    Increased

    7

    39

    83

    51

    23

    35

    26

    36

    Unchanged

    57

    51

    15

    35

    59

    52

    57

    56

    Decreased

    36

    10

    2

    14

    18

    14

    17

    7

    Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (e)

    Increased

    22

    33

    69

    42

    27

    32

    24

    49

    Unchanged

    66

    61

    29

    51

    70

    65

    67

    47

    Decreased

    12

    6

    2

    7

    4

    3

    9

    4

    Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (f)

    Complete confidence

    0

    1

    0

    1

    2

    0

    2

    0

    Very confident

    50

    44

    42

    24

    29

    29

    38

    35

    Fairly confident

    45

    51

    55

    69

    63

    65

    56

    53

    Not very confident

    5

    3

    3

    6

    7

    6

    4

    13

    No confidence

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Change in confidence over the past six months (g)

    Increased

    22

    9

    0

    7

    7

    5

    16

    9

    Unchanged

    72

    81

    71

    50

    80

    80

    73

    64

    Decreased

    5

    10

    29

    43

    13

    15

    11

    27

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) Entries are percentages of respondents and may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) Respondents were asked what the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system was in their view, for both the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
    • (e) Respondents were asked how the probability had changed over the past six months for the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
    • (f) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years.
    • (g) Respondents were asked how their confidence had changed over the past six months. The question was asked from 2010 H1 onwards.
  • Sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c) (d)

    2021 H2

    2022 H1

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    Geopolitical risk

    59

    63

    72

    79

    66

    85

    93

    87

    Cyberattack

    74

    79

    74

    75

    80

    70

    80

    73

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    12

    14

    20

    32

    52

    44

    45

    62

    Operational risk

    21

    29

    20

    21

    20

    12

    22

    33

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    31

    24

    17

    13

    21

    14

    22

    33

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    14

    6

    20

    22

    16

    14

    33

    20

    Household/corporate credit risk

    7

    9

    8

    10

    7

    20

    24

    20

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    21

    9

    6

    17

    11

    15

    13

    16

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    0

    0

    7

    14

    15

    16

    Inflation risk

    33

    63

    72

    53

    57

    41

    24

    16

    Climate risk

    33

    24

    23

    39

    39

    36

    29

    15

    Funding risk

    0

    3

    2

    7

    9

    8

    4

    13

    Risk of financial market infrastructure disruption

    2

    0

    0

    1

    7

    12

    15

    9

    Sovereign risk

    0

    1

    2

    4

    2

    3

    7

    9

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    2

    1

    0

    3

    2

    2

    4

    7

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    9

    4

    5

    7

    9

    6

    2

    7

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    7

    4

    6

    6

    14

    17

    5

    5

    UK political risk

    40

    26

    34

    28

    16

    21

    7

    5

    Other

    21

    19

    23

    19

    14

    11

    22

    5

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    3

    5

    1

    0

    3

    4

    4

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    4

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    4

    Risk of property price falls

    12

    13

    3

    10

    11

    11

    7

    2

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

    3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    Pandemic risk

    57

    51

    31

    8

    5

    3

    0

    2

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    5

    11

    17

    8

    5

    3

    2

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    3

    0

    3

    0

    0

    Number one source of risk to the UK financial system (f)

    Geopolitical risk

    2

    13

    17

    28

    23

    41

    42

    42

    Cyberattack

    19

    34

    17

    10

    27

    21

    31

    18

    Operational risk

    0

    0

    0

    1

    0

    5

    5

    11

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    2

    6

    8

    14

    16

    12

    5

    9

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    2

    0

    3

    4

    0

    2

    5

    4

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    3

    1

    3

    0

    5

    2

    2

    4

    Funding risk

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    4

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    3

    1

    3

    1

    0

    2

    2

    2

    UK political risk

    10

    1

    2

    1

    0

    3

    0

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    2

    1

    0

    0

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Sovereign risk

    0

    0

    0

    1

    2

    0

    0

    2

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    2

    1

    3

    1

    4

    0

    0

    2

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    2

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Climate risk

    3

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Pandemic risk

    38

    11

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    2

    3

    2

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of property price falls

    0

    0

    0

    3

    2

    0

    0

    0

    Other

    0

    3

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    0

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    0

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of financial market infrastructure disruption

    0

    0

    0

    1

    2

    2

    0

    0

    Inflation risk

    12

    23

    38

    25

    14

    5

    4

    0

    Household/corporate credit risk

    0

    0

    2

    3

    0

    5

    2

    0

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) Respondents were asked which five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) Percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in their top five, among those citing at least one risk.
    • (e) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
    • (f) Percentages of respondents citing each risk as their number one risk (ie the risk with the greatest potential impact), among those citing at least one source of risk.
  • Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b) (c)

    2021 H2

    2022 H1

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    Geopolitical risk

    32

    40

    48

    49

    46

    70

    71

    67

    Cyberattack

    58

    65

    56

    50

    70

    59

    71

    62

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    7

    4

    13

    24

    29

    18

    16

    35

    Operational risk

    9

    18

    11

    11

    11

    8

    16

    25

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    16

    6

    5

    11

    4

    7

    7

    13

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    4

    4

    6

    11

    11

    10

    22

    11

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    12

    10

    11

    3

    5

    3

    11

    11

    Inflation risk

    23

    46

    61

    40

    41

    16

    9

    11

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    10

    5

    9

    Funding risk

    0

    1

    2

    6

    9

    2

    2

    7

    Climate risk

    21

    15

    13

    15

    20

    16

    15

    5

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    5

    4

    5

    0

    9

    8

    4

    5

    UK political risk

    25

    10

    14

    11

    7

    7

    4

    4

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    4

    4

    3

    3

    4

    3

    0

    4

    Sovereign risk

    0

    0

    0

    3

    2

    2

    4

    4

    Risk of financial market infrastructure disruption

    2

    0

    0

    1

    7

    10

    9

    4

    Household/corporate credit risk

    7

    4

    5

    7

    2

    16

    7

    4

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    1

    3

    0

    0

    3

    2

    2

    Risk of property price falls

    4

    3

    0

    6

    2

    8

    2

    2

    Other

    16

    13

    6

    13

    5

    7

    11

    2

    Pandemic risk

    40

    29

    9

    4

    0

    0

    0

    2

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    0

    0

    3

    0

    2

    2

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (d)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    4

    4

    11

    3

    4

    2

    2

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as challenging to manage

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

    58

    70

    65

    72

    56

    66

    55

    55

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks, they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked which three of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  • Risks most probable to materialise (a) (b) (c)

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    Geopolitical risk

    54

    41

    67

    75

    80

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    25

    39

    37

    29

    49

    Cyberattack

    38

    46

    40

    60

    44

    Operational risk

    11

    14

    10

    13

    18

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    3

    11

    8

    15

    16

    Household/corporate credit risk

    8

    4

    12

    15

    13

    Inflation risk

    45

    52

    20

    15

    13

    Risk around regulation/taxes

    7

    4

    10

    5

    11

    Risks associated with an overseas economic downturn

    13

    7

    10

    22

    9

    Risk of financial market infrastructure disruption

    1

    4

    7

    4

    5

    Funding risk

    6

    9

    3

    0

    4

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    3

    0

    0

    2

    4

    UK political risk

    8

    9

    17

    4

    4

    Climate risk

    11

    16

    15

    15

    4

    Risks surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    4

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    Other

    13

    4

    3

    9

    2

    Risk of property price falls

    8

    9

    5

    4

    2

    Sovereign risk

    1

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Risks surrounding monetary/fiscal policy

    1

    7

    3

    0

    2

    Risks surrounding low interest rate environment (d)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    5

    12

    5

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    1

    0

    7

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    6

    4

    2

    2

    0

    Pandemic risk

    0

    4

    2

    0

    0

    Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as most likely to materialise

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

    72

    56

    66

    55

    55

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks, they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked which three of these risks was most probable to materialise. This element of the survey was introduced in 2021 H2. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  1. The Systemic Risk Survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. It was published for the first time in November 2011. The survey results complement other sources of information used by the Bank to identify system-wide risks.

  2. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.

  3. These summary categories are adjusted over time in order to better capture current risks cited. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the new categories to ensure comparability across survey rounds.

  4. This question was introduced in the 2021 H2 survey.